Consequences of Immortality

In March 2010, humans were finally able to grow a new organ from stem cells and successfully transplant it as a working organ: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article7068514.ece This article outlines how stem cells were used to create a new trachea for a 10-year old boy.

While this advancement in medicine is relatively new, it holds great promise. It shows that stems cells can indeed be used to create new organs, and has emboldened researchers to take larger steps by trying to create other organs such as heart, liver, eyes, pancreas, etc. At this stage, creating skin from stem cells is also being done; the current plan is to make this into a commercial avenue within the next 10 years by growing skin from one's stem cells and transplanting it back onto their body. There is also a prize-foundation which promises to award researchers for being the first ones to create a certain organ. All this leads me to believe that humans will soon figure out how to grow organs from anyone's stem cells. This, coupled with advances in nanotechnology, genetics and liposome formulation create a legitimate possibility that every disease and disorder known to man will someday have a cure.

Soon, humans will wield the power of immortality. For example, an 80-year old with a dying heart can simply grow a new heart and have it transplanted, thereby extending this life. He can keep doing this for every organ which may start failing, including skin. It is no longer a question whether or not humans can be immortal; the question now is what happens after we develop technologies to achieve immortality? How will this affect the population crisis we are already facing? How would it alter the political, economic and social rules of the world today? How will we decide whether people who are dying but do not have enough money to buy/grow new organs deserve to die or deserve to be saved? This blog will take a quick look at the consequences of immortality in a way no one has discussed before. This discussion will raise more questions than it answers. The main goal of this discussion is to get you, the reader thinking about the questions we will soon face. You will soon find these issues as the center of many great debates ( official political debates as well as unofficial debates between friends). Please think about these issues and spread the word, making others think about these issues as well.


Immortality: who gets to have it?
After technologies for immortality are developed, they will certainly become a part of available medical procedures. However, these procedures may cost extravagant sums of money, since they help prevent death and the demand for them would be nearly insatiable. The costs may be so high that it is safe to assume not everyone will be able to afford it. In fact, it would be surprising for anyone not in the upper class of income (those in middle and lower classes) to be able to afford immortality. Will we as a nation then set up government funded immortality-alternatives to those who cannot afford it, similar to the current healthcare system. Will procedures for immortality become a part of Medicare and Medicaid? If not, where do we draw the line?


Immortality and population crisis
If we make these procedures publicly funded and available to everyone, mortality rates would be 0 or nearly 0. As a world, we are already facing a population crisis. There are already over 10 billion people in the world today, and that number will increase exponentially. Many leading researchers estimate that starvation will become a major problem by 2050. The lack of mortality will certainly make this problem much, much worse. It is unlikely that people will stop reproducing. The population would increase due to births, but never decrease due to death. Add to this the possibility that some of those who alive for longer periods of time due to immortality-procedures are likely to procreate themselves, and you come to realize the population explosion we will see once these things become a reality. While large leaps are made in field of medicine, negligible amount of attention is paid to the ever growing problem of starvation. So which method of unfortunate demise do we chose for the less fortunate? Death due to an inability to gather funds to save your dying self? Or death due to starvation? Do we even publicly fund procedures for someone who has a high chance of dying from starvation due to low income?


Immortality: Economic consequences
This push towards immortality not only makes you live longer, but can also improve your body in order to reverse aging. Therefore, the mandatory retirement age of 65 would no longer make sense. There could possibly be 80- or 90-year olds with new organs and limbs who are more fit to work than 60 year olds with no transplants. This increases the available working force, without increasing the opportunities for jobs. As the population explodes and the old still keep working, it would undoubtedly lead to increasing unemployment. This is but one effect of immortality on economics

Second, and more important effect, would be the fact the those who are insanely rich (Buffet, Gates, I'm looking at you) would be able to best afford these immortality-procedures for a long, LONG time. If this were to happen, people like them could go on to live for many generations, and in turn amass more wealth and power. At what point do these individuals become too powerful? In a capitalistic economy and society, can we ever say one individual has become too powerful? How would the prolonged existence of such power-barons affect economics on a large scale?

Immortality: Political consequences
Now extend that thought to politics. Think not only of American politics, but of politics world wide. What if Kim-Jong Il could afford these procedures and decide to forever rule North Korea? What if American politicians, who would again be able to afford these procedures, become permanent fixtures in the Senate and the House? What if the Queen never dies, and Prince Charles forever remains a prince? How does that affect the political workings within these nations and between these nations?


Immortality: Social consequences
What if you could be immortal and reverse aging? Would you simply spend your life in pursuit of happiness. Would you have more children or simply spend your days working and enjoying life? Would anything about you change at all? If you did have more children, how close would you be with all your children?


While we do not face any of these issues yet, we will face these issues soon, and within our lifetimes. If we start discussing these issues now, we will be ready to deal with them when we face them. If we decide to put off this discussion until it becomes "relevant", these issues will blind side us. In a rapidly changing world, its best if we see the change coming and plan accordingly. So get talking to those who you think would care, and lets starting looking at this issue with a more serious note.

- Kevat Shah